Experiment Value Estimator agent

  • Updated

The Experiment Value Estimator agent in Optimizely Opal transforms your winning test results into a clear, stakeholder-ready business case. It calculates projected annual impact, quantifies revenue lift, and applies an optional conservative discount to anchor expectations. This accelerates post-experiment reporting so your experimentation program communicates measurable, data-driven value. The projection helps justify continued investment and supports confident shipping decisions.

  • Challenge – Communicating the business impact of a winning experiment is difficult. You often struggle to translate experiment test results into concrete, stakeholder-ready numbers that justify the investment. Lift percentages and statistical significance do not map directly to revenue.
  • Agent outcome – The Experiment Value Estimator generates a report with the projected annualized impact of rolling out a winning experiment variation. It takes your experiment test results (conversion rates, traffic, duration, and value per conversion) and produces a shareable projection of the revenue or business value your winning test delivers.
  • Value –
    • Quantifies the return on investment (ROI) of experimentation in dollar terms stakeholders understand.
    • Removes the guesswork from post-experiment reporting.
    • Supports confident go or no-go decisions on shipping winning variations.
    • Includes an optional conservative discount factor to anchor stakeholders on a realistic, defensible number.

Required Optimizely products

The Experiment Value Estimator requires one of the following Optimizely Experimentation products:

  • Optimizely Web Experimentation
  • Optimizely Feature Experimentation

Install the Experiment Value Estimator agent

Opal Administrators, Agent Builders, and users with the Add, edit, and install specialized agents  attribute for a custom role can add agents to their organization's Optimizely Opal instance. See Add users and set permissions.

Install the Experiment Value Estimator to make it available in Opal Chat and in workflow agents across your Opal instance. Complete the following steps:

  1. Go to Agents > Agent Directory.

  2. Select Experiment Value Estimator.

    Screenshot of the Agent Directory with the Experiment Value Estimator highlighted.

  3. Click Install Agent to add it to your instance.

    Screenshot of the Agent Directory with the Experiment Value Estimator agent selected with install agent highlighted.

Use the Experiment Value Estimator agent

Run the Experiment Value Estimator from Opal Chat to project the annualized business value of a winning experiment. The agent returns a projected annual value, the lift percentage, and a confidence-adjusted recommendation. In Opal Chat, enter @experiment_value_estimator and provide the following details:

  • Primary Metric Name – The primary success metric being measured. For example, Form Success, Add to Cart, Trial Signup.
  • Conversion Unit – What each conversion is called in plain English. Used in labels and share blurbs. For example, lead, signup, order, subscription, conversion.
  • Variation Visitors – Number of visitors exposed to the variation during the test (not total experiment traffic). For example, 139795.
  • Control Conversion Rate – Conversion rate for the control, entered as a percentage value. For example, 2.73 means 2.73% (not 0.0273).
  • Variation Conversion Rate – Conversion rate for the variation, entered as a percentage value. For example, 2.87 means 2.87% (not 0.0287).
  • Statistical Significance – The statistical significance/confidence level, entered as a percentage. For example, 93 means 93%.
  • Duration in Days – Number of days the experiment ran. For example, 319.
  • Value Per Conversion – Dollar value of a single conversion, entered as a number (no $ sign or comma). For example, 70 for $70 per lead.
  • (Optional) Conservative Discount Factor – Conservative reduction applied to the annualized projection, entered as a percentage. Reduces the headline projected annual value by this amount. For example, 10 means project 90% of the calculated annual value (a $1,000,000 annualized projection becomes $900,000). Default is 0 (no discount). Use this discount when you want to present a more conservative projection to stakeholders.

To use the Experiment Value Estimator agent in a workflow agent, drag and drop it into your workflow. For instructions, see Configure workflow agent.

Default agent configuration

The Experiment Value Estimator agent uses the following default configuration. After you install the agent, optionally customize the following details to match your organization's needs. See Manage agents for instructions.

Input variables

The Experiment Value Estimator takes the following input:

  • Primary Metric Name
  • Conversion Unit
  • Variation Visitors
  • Control Conversion Rate
  • Variation Conversion Rate
  • Statistical Significance
  • Duration in Days
  • Value Per Conversion
  • (Optional) Conservative Discount Factor

Tools

The Experiment Value Estimator agent uses the following tools internally to process your request.

  • create_canvas
  • reasoning_step

Additional configuration

The following settings control how the agent processes requests:

  • Inference level – Pro. Determines the processing capacity the agent uses. Pro inference provides higher accuracy for complex requests.
  • Files – None. This agent does not use file attachments.

If you use Opti ID, administrators can turn off generative AI in the Opti ID Admin Center. See Turn generative AI off across Optimizely applications.